The Harris Poll® has been measuring attitudes toward the Roe vs. Wade decision legalizing abortion ever since it was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973. During the 33 years since then, Harris Polls found majorities, between 52 and 65 percent of all U.S. adults, in favor of Roe vs. Wade. Now, a new Harris Poll finds that Roe vs. Wade is supported only by a slender 49 percent to 47 percent plurality. In other words, support and opposition are almost equal.However, a substantial 63 to 32 percent majority of all adults do not think it is likely that this Supreme Court will overturn Roe vs. Wade. Furthermore, only 20 percent of U.S. adults favor permitting a woman to get an abortion under no circumstances.
These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 1,016 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive® between April 4 and 10, 2006.
Other interesting findings include:
While Democrats (55%) favor Roe vs. Wade and Republicans (61%) oppose it, substantial minorities disagree. Fully 37 percent of Republicans support Roe vs. Wade, and 43 percent of Democrats oppose it. The parties are not as polarized on this issue as they are on many other issues.
Attitudes toward the abortion issue are not always consistent. While 49 percent now support Roe vs. Wade, 40 percent favor laws making it more difficult for a woman to have an abortion, 15 percent favor laws making it easier for a woman to get an abortion and 40 percent favor no change to existing abortion laws.
When asked about the recent South Dakota law "that would ban all abortions except to save the life of the mother," a modest 52 to 44 percent majority of adults say they would oppose a similar law if introduced in their state.
The big picture, therefore, is that the public is now almost equally divided on Roe vs. Wade. A modest majority opposes a law like the South Dakota law, and a large majority supports a woman's right to an abortion under some circumstances.
Methodology
This Harris Poll® was conducted by telephone within the United States between April 4 and 10, 2006 among 1,016 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region, number of adults in the household, number of phone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.
All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.
With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.
With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 1,016 adults one could say with a 95 percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
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